Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Live Blogging the Mid-Terms, Part II: When Doves Cry

When doves cry, y'all. - M

8:40 - Officially delving into the kids’ Halloween candy.

Asa Hutchinson.  There’s a blast from the Clinton impeachment past.  Did you hear he loves Billary now?

Geez, this is a long count. - E

8:46 - You know what, knock on wood, but this hasn't yet turned out to be the debacle for the Democrats that I thought it was going to turn out to be.  I was expecting to need some mind-altering substance to get through this, but so far, it hasn't quite the thrashing I was expecting.

And a huge fire alarm goes off in Peter Jennings pants on Msnbc. I'm not even kidding.  lol

8:49 - Not touching the pants thing :-P  Did you switch to the feel good Dem team (MSNBC)?

But I will say, that John King (CNN) can expand a map like nobody’s business.  Work it, baby.

To quote vampire Willow, “bored now.”

8:53 I did switch to Msnbc.  I'm over to Fox now, where I was earlier.  They started out giddy, but they seem a bit more subdued now.  Interesting.  I don't think I will be seeing any on air meltdowns a la Rove during the last election.  Such a pity.

8:55 These poor cable news people.  They were expecting actual results.  I agree, it does make me happy that this hasn't been a tidal wave (she said, vigorously knocking wood).

9:03 - Looks like the Republicans need three seats to control the Senate.  Sigh.  We may not know anything until December if Louisiana has to do a run-off.  I think everyone on tv is girding their loins for the long slog.

9:10 - Newt Gingrich.  Yes, that's who I need to explain this election to me.  Thanks, CNN!

Meanwhile on Fox -

Newt is happy.  That means I'm unhappy.  Flames, on the side of my face.

Major projection... House is R.  Come on, seriously, Wolf?  LOL - E

9:16 - Those are some serious graphics Fox is touting. LOL.  Al Franken wins. 

Locally, it looks like Bowser will pull off the DC mayoral race.  And it seems, shocker, that the initiative to legalize marijuana will pass.   Still no calls on Warner and no calls for the MD governor race yet.

9:18 - D news from the Post - Shaheen won (NH), Peters won (MI), Reed (RI), Coons (DE), Durbin (IL)

So that's at least good.  Because Scott Brown has now lost to 2 women for Senate.

Weird on VA, MD.  I think with MD they just aren't interested, but we'll see.

9:26 - It seems like the Dems are going into full-blown panic mode in VA.  The pre-polling looked great, the exits are fine, but the actual totals are not lining up.  It's a lot closer than anyone has dreamed.  MSNBC has switched it from "too early to call" back to "too close to call." Not good at all.

NC is looking surprisingly good for Dems.

9:30 - I think on a lot of these it's that when the Party thinks it's in the bag, they shouldn't - VA and NC are good examples.  In VA it was such a storm of media, and Gillespie has been so shady in his ads.  In NC Hagan has run a better race than most - and has run to Obamacare, not against.  That was WAY smarter than most Dems have been this cycle.

David Gergen on CNN with the exact right message on the night: it’s not that one party’s up the other down, it’s that people are disgusted with both.  Nail on head.

Kansas - Pat Roberts did this to himself, 100 percent.

Earlier commenter - Tapper just made the point on VA polling being wonky in re: Cantor and tonight. - E

9:41 - They are dancing with calling NC.  It seems inevitable that Hagan will win at this point.  NC proves their purple bona fides once again.

As David Letterman just cynically pointed out, gas is less than $3, unemployment is way down, the ranks of the uninsured has shrunk considerably, and the stock market has hit new highs.  Why exactly were Democrats fleeing from Obama again?  Dems are their own worst enemies when it comes to controlling the narrative and messaging.  Again.

9:45 - Runoff in LA.  Expected.  May be awhile in limbo on Senate control.

Im finding some personal happiness that it currently looks like Mike Michaud (D) may beat the truly odious Paul LePage in Maine Governor race.

Wonkette having some fun predicting Scott Brown's move to Vermont (look out, Bernie!) - E

9:50 - Yeah, I could probably go to bed now.  Unless something dramatic happens in VA, we won't know the outcome of the Senate until December.  I'm watching MSNBC right now, and Al Sharpton still looks weird to me all skinny.  Do they only break out the holograms on CNN during presidential elections?

Personhood initiative fails in Colorado.  :)  And all of the minimum wage hikes have passed so far, which is great news too.

9:55 - Min Wage is great generally, and bc of D turnout in those states.

Meant to mention - word on David Letterman.  Ds can’t manage to stand up for their own policies, and it causes them to shoot themselves in the foot all the time.  Hagan should be instructive - even if she loses - because she has worked it in a still pretty fuchsia state.

So GA, VA, NC, CO, KS, SD, IA, and AK left in Senate calculations. - E

10:05 - Minimum wage is interesting, because even in the states where Repubs are winning easily, the minimum wage still passes.  I tend to associate it as a Democratic issue, but perhaps it is becoming de-coupled? 

Looks like the MD governor will go to the Dems.

Marijuana triumphs in DC, but fails in FL.  Interesting.

They are really examining the polling failures in VA.  I think in the future they are going to look at the polling assumptions a little more closely.  But Fairfax still hasn't come in, which is about a million votes still out there.

10:15 - The Post has 50 senate for R with lean R races, but they include VA, LA, NC, KS, CO, etc. so if one of those breaks the other way (and LA to runoff)...

I think Min Wage is a D issue, in that it drives turnout of people who are more likely to vote D, but in red states, the larger populace is still largely red, so it can only do so much - and in an election in which very few Ds in battleground states ran on the economy (SD, NC being exceptions to this rule), Ds weren't poised to scoop up more than the people who were already leaning D - I don't think many D candidates changed anybody's mind....

Speaking of which, Wendy Davis lost, but was expected to lose.  TX is about ten years away from being purple, and they may have pushed that off a bit with the voter ID changes.

Interesting kerfuffle over Fox showing exit polling data that's typically off limits.

10:23 - They've called the Colorado Senate for the Republicans.  Crap. So the R's need one more seat from somewhere to get control.  Things just got real y'all.  Getting a lot more grim over at MSNBC. Flipping to Fox.

Texas is going to go purple sooner or later, and even the voter ID can only stave off the inevitable for so long.  Until Republicans can solve their demographics problem, it is something that they are going to have to deal with.

10:39 - Perdue beats Nunn in GA.

Yes, I think the biggest push in this gerrymandering/voter ID thing has been trying to stave off the inevitable demographics trend.  I think some Rs expected the Latino vote to me more malleable for them, but then they moved from the Bush era on immigration to the scary xenophobe era on immigration, and that has compounded the social issue gap between Rs and many Latinos.

The long game is interesting, let's assume Rs gain the Senate outright.  They have spent the last 6 years doing virtually nothing positive, all obstruction.  What does an R-led Congress do now?  They seem to be backing off of: repealing Obamacare, impeachment, suing the president.  What changes in the House now that they don't have a Senate to block whatever hare-brained idea the Tea Party comes up with?  And now we're in 2016 race territory, and we sure have a lot of R senators interested in running.  How far right can a potential presidential candidate go?  Rubio and Paul have already started moderating, what happens to guys like Cruz?  Do Ds have the backbone and obstructionist set to be the filibuster party?  We certainly don't have a veto override in this new Senate over anything remotely controversial.

The lack of calls on some of our nearby races are befuddling.  I feel like if we are in R tidal wave territory that should have been clearer by now, which means we're in some weird middle ground where the last votes coming in are expected to change things.

10:49 - his is my last post of the night before I'm off to bed.  But it looks like the Senate will indeed flip to the Republicans.  Yet somehow it doesn't seem like the red tsunami that the media was predicting happened?  Why is that?  I think you are correct, Emily, in that they can no longer be the party of No, but will at least try to appear to come up with some reasonable pieces of legislation.  This should get interesting.  I wonder if the Tea Party's influence wane, or if it will experience a resurgence?

Your guy Brown is now behind again in MD. 

Warner is finally up in VA.  I predict it will go to recount a la McAuliffe and he will pull it off by the skin of his teeth.

I should wake up to some interesting headlines in the morning.  Yeah me!  Good night folks!

11:03 - Yep, it doesn't feel as bad as expected, but certainly it ain't great.

Kind of morbidly interested to see folks like Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz go after each other.  Those are some fightin' Rs that aren't afraid to play dirty.

And I'll be happy when we get to turn the page on this truly disappointing election and move on to a less gerrymandered future.  Good night!


  1. Give it up for Mandi with the title.

  2. MSNBC is calling that Louisiana will go to a runoff. See you in December!

  3. Interesting that the exit polls are showing that the majority of voters in this election agree with the Dems on social issues and immigration. Goes to show that people may be voting more about the economy (which has certainly improved so the Dems should have been running on that), or foreign policy (based on the myth that Republicans are better at foreign policy than Dems -- pure myth), or based on whether the candidate was "likeable" (and if that's the case, attack ads must work). So it will be interesting to see if the GOP backs off with their crusade for right-wing social policies, and if not, whether voters in 2016 start to cite social policies as something they are actually willing to vote on. Also will be interesting to see what they do with regard to immigration, given the exit polls.

    1. Solid read, but there are also the outside pressures on Rs to stay way right on social issues - which matter more as the Tea Party has been willing to challenge anybody in a primary and sometimes win. As for Ds, how long will it take for Ds to actually be confident enough to argue for their own ideas and successes? It's a perpetual head-scratcher for me.

    2. I think Republicans are delicately skewing toward the left on many social issues. Very delicately, and very slowly, but it is happening. McConnell has already said that he is unwilling to take on gay marriage if they should win the Senate. In Colorado, the Republican candidate has run away from the personhood initiative. More Republicans are embracing OTC birth control pills (as a way to get around some mandated birth control coverage, but still). It is absolutely happening.

    3. Gay marriage is the thing where I see the most movement. Abortion and birth control are going the other way.

  4. Interesting how the polls seem to have been much more favorable to Dems than actual voting is. No real surprises yet although VA-SEN is troubling.