Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Nate Silver Swears It's Gonna Be an Upset... Live-Blogging the Midterms

Live-bloggy blog.... La La La...

(We're starting at 7pm)

Not that it's been awhile, but Mandi forgot her login.  Man, we're rusty :-) (7:08)

I forgot how to do this, my brother said work bottom up, so... Holy what now? McConnell already?  I need a drink. - E

 I've blown the dust off, and I'm in!  McConnell is back.  Bleh.  I'm sure the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles must be proud on of their brethren has made it.

7:17 - that was some high tech white-boarding in NH, CNN.

Background for tonight:

Senate party standings (as of October 31, 2013):   53 Democrats   2 Independents, both caucusing with Democrats   45 Republicans

Tonight Rs need 18 seats to gain control of the Senate – mind you, Louisiana will likely go to a runoff, and it’s possible that we won’t know about control tonight (see e.g. here). - E

7:17 watching the results of the Virginia Senate with bated breath. Right now Gillespie is up, but we all know that rural areas, which skew Republican, tend to vote first.  We have to wait for Fairfax and Loudoun to report.  But it is too close for my comfort.

7:32 - On governors: 25 governorships are up for a vote.  FL, WI, MA are the closest

Senate races to focus on: GA, KY, VA, NC, NH, AR, CO, LA, KS, SD, IA, AK – and KY has already gone R. (Remember, Rs need 18 in total, 6 to flip sides.)

Kasich wins OH, pretty expected. I agree on VA, but the numbers were high.  I'm honestly still worried about MD because I think a lot of Ehrlich Ds are interested in Hogan. - E

7:41- They aren't really discussing MD on the networks yet.  They are talking about the unusually high African-American vote in Georgia, making the race too close to call.  This was the race that invoked Trayvon Martin and "Stand Your Ground" that so many people decried.  Maybe it worked after all?

7:44 - GA is Baby Nunn, where she wouldn't say if she voted for Obama.  She also looks a lot like her dad, FWIW :-)

Meanwhile, in general election info - White people didn’t have to stand in line today... And 21 states have made it harder to vote since the last election.

The Warner endorsement of Warner in VA should have helped a bit, so it will be interesting to see if the polls change when NOVA is in.  - E

7:53- She does look like her dad.  Freaky.  They are now saying Georgia and Virginia are "too early to call", rather than too close to call, which probably means they are eventually going to go Dem.  They must be examining the exit polling and making sure it lines up.  But they are broadly hinting the way they want to call it.

7:57 - Vamp, NH!  Vamp!  CNN has a whole bunch of nothing until 8pm... - E

8:05 - So, per usual, it has been an incumbent's night.  Nothing too shocking right now.  Your boy Corey Booker managed to pull it off, to no one's surprise.

8:07 - Phew, Ed Markey and Cory Booker won, those were squeakers… ;-)

No NH, VA, IL, DE, RI, MD Gov, FL, MA Gov calls – that’s bad news.

Wow, PA – Corbett goes down, D pickup.  Cool, Corbett was terrible.

At least there’s no hologram yet.

Self-identified “Independents” are mostly R-leaning men who want to still get laid and/or would prefer to be libertarian but mostly vote R, so I don’t know why we bother classifying them that way. - E

8:15 - I agree with your identification of the "independent" voter, for the most part.  MD they are saying is "too early" to call, which probably means it is a safely Dem at this point.

8:17 - And I will be vamping for a bit while Mandi gives a baby bath.

Lindsey Graham is a Tea Party-whupping badass, acc to Vox (I'd say it's more like he just said whatever they wanted him to say, moving to the right to appease people, but hey, read your own tea leaves.)...

Lots of love for Ed Gillespie in the CNN house - they are acting like VA doesn't flip back and forth every election, which I find a bit funny. - E

8:21 - And we're on the Scott/Crist debates.  I say it's Florida, if the man wants a fan, what's the big deal?  But that said, it definitely seems like the addendum to the debate rules was hinky.  Tough call, but since Scott has terrible policy positions, I'm going with the Fan Man.

No, Wolf, Congress will not look very different.  The Senate may, but the House will be about the damn same (thank you, gerrymandering!). - E

8:27 - WI Gov race - this guy.  This guy right here with his "I support equal pay (except for I repealed it)" - this guy is on my list.  It has been so long since we blogged here that I have a lot of pent up commenting.  I try to be way less partisan on my baby blog - (shameless plug). - E

8:32 - VA is solidly purple right now, so the flipping back and forth is not too much of a surprise.  But I bet some Republican strategists are gnashing their teeth right now, thinking if only they had put a little more money in that race...

McConnell taking his victory lap.  Blergh.

Arkansas a Republican pickup.  Uh-oh.

New Thread here:  http://yourbiggirlpants.blogspot.com/2014/11/live-blogging-mid-terms-part-ii-when.html


  1. Polling in VA seems to always be off. Eric Cantor? Terry McAuliffe just squeaking by? The razor-thin margin in the 2013 AG race? Could they have been wrong about Warner too? Why is it seemingly so difficult to poll VA?

  2. Good question. It feels like it should be fairly predictable based on turnout in NoVa vs the rest of VA.

  3. I think it is all about turnout, which is hard to predict, and tend to be more volatile in the Democratic-leaning districts. Weather can make all the difference.

  4. Maybe Virginians lie to pollsters at a higher rate? Or maybe it's a disproportionately cell-heavy/land-line-light populace?

    1. The Cantor one was a real shocker. The 2013 polls still predicted the right winner, just by a smaller margin.

    2. They were and they weren't - there were indications that Cantor was in trouble, but the beltway and CW basically assumed VA wouldn't go that way. It was a really interesting race, in retrospect :-)

    3. Jake Tapper just noted the wonky poll issue in VA in re: Cantor and tonight.

  5. You watch CNN so we don't have to!

  6. As a self identified independent who comes from a long family tradition of public servants who avoid partisan identification as inconsistent with their role as public servants for all people, I take exception with the majority of your statement about independents. Except for the part about "men who want to get laid." That is just plain redundant. - Steve

    1. I'm sure there is some asexual man out there taking exception to your statement Steve. :P

    2. You are the exception who proves the rule, my friend :-)