Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Live-Blog 5.0: Can I Get A...?

AAAAAAAHHHHHH.  It's finally here, people.

No more friggin' political ads.  No more robocalls.  Actually, we may have a few more hours of those.  For those people who inexplicably have yet to decide.

Follow us below to the live-blogging action, and the results contest (yes, you could earn your very own YBGP t-shirt if your prognosticating skills are up to snuff).

The Contest:  We will award one YBGP t-shirt to the person who comes the closest to both the electoral and popular vote totals (270 to win, people, and if you need to figure out your math, you can work on your totals here or here or here or here.  You have until the first polls close (7pm EST) to submit your guesstimates, in the comments section below.

If we get enough interest, we'll award another shirt to the person who calls the swing states ("swing states" = NH, IA, FL, CO, NV, OH, MO, VA, NC, PA, MI, WI, NM - see above map) and closely-contested Senate races (in AZ, CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, ND, NM, NV, OH, VA, WI).  You can get state-by-state analysis here or here or here.

Early voting line in Miami

So go ahead, put your guessing caps on, and we'll be back every once in awhile to share some angst or something interesting we've seen.  Please feel free to do the same in the comments...

Oh, and Vote, vote, votey-vote-vote.  Please!

7:45am - Emily: Vote, People.  Even Monkey Babies want you to vote...


9:18 am - Emily:  Memes!  Hey, remember all those memes over this loooooooong campaign?

9:24am - Emily (I am so winning, Mandi - stupid caffeine and adrenaline): PBS lets you make your own campaign ad.  Also, what would this election be like if the voting age were 13 (note to self: go back and write a separate post on this subject)?

10:14am - Emily: Weird ways to predict the election outcome.


10:20 am - Mandi:  So have we heard that Pres. Obama is also a matchmaker?  Gov.  Christie has a huge mancrush on Bruce Springsteen.  Bruce Springsteen, on the other hand, is decidely quite cool to the governor.  However, in what will probably be spun as some nefarious quid pro quo, Springsteen called Christie while Christie was aboard Air Force One.  Springsteen has also even given Chris Christie a hug.  Christie has admitted that he cried tears of joy at talking to his hero. 

I'll be on the go off and on throughout the day, so I'll be posting sporadically, at best.

11:20 - Emily:  I'm all for voting, and "stop, think, and choose" as a voting motto, but I'm not sure that Daniel the Tiger is helping when he has the King and Queen explaining the voting process...


12:20 - Emily:  It's getting long, so I may add a PM live-blog post, comments on either will count for the contest up until 7pm EST.  In the meantime, I'm adding my first partisan-like post.  I held off for 12 hours :-)  This is the case Rachel Maddow essentially made for a second Obama term last night.  I don't think it's newsy, but if you forgot what the President has done, or you're looking for reasons to feel good about voting for him, this will be nice to watch.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

1:29 - Emily:  Think this will be the last one until 5.1 post.  Here are the guesstimates of the punditry class from the Washington Post (I think George Will's is the strangest - what do you think?) - I picked out some of the most notable ones...

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235. ”The model estimates that Mr. Romney would need to win the national popular vote by about one percentage point to avert a tossup, or a loss, in the Electoral College,” Silver writes...

Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212. “The accuracy of my election forecasts depend on the accuracy of the presidential polls,” Linzer writes. ”As such, a major concern heading into Election Day is the possibility that polling firms, out of fear of being wrong, are looking at the results of other published surveys and weighting or adjusting their own results to match.”

Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. “I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren’t likely.”

Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. “Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?”... 
Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261. “I’ve given Romney the states that are essentially tied, in which he’s led in at least some recent polls. But in states where Romney has trailed in nearly all polls, and in some cases by a comfortable margin, I’m giving them to Obama.”...

George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217. “ I guess the wild card in what I’ve projected is I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney. Now, that’s the only state in the union, because Mondale held it — native son Mondale held it when Romney was — when Reagan was getting 49 states — the only state that’s voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections. But this year, there’s a marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”

Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253. He’s got Romney winning Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. 
Dick Morris, FoxNews: Romney 325, Obama 213. ”It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history,” Morris said. “It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit.”

Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98. Here’s a tweet from Cramer: “No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin. Believe me.”

Interesting, no?


  1. Here's my questimate: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bqII. Obama loses Florida and North Carolina, snags Ohio and Virginia and pretty much every other battleground. 303-235.

    1. Nice :-) But we need a percentage of the popular vote if you want that T-shirt, Bass.

    2. Alrighty, I'm guessing Obama takes it with 51%.

  2. EC: O=316, R=222; Pop: O=54%

  3. Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri to Romney; the other swing states to Obama, giving a final tally of Obama 303, Romney 235. Popular vote: Obama 48.96%, Romney 48.05%

    Senate races:
    AZ (R)
    CT (D)
    IN (D)
    MA (D)
    MO (D)
    MT (R)
    ND (R)
    NM (D)
    NV (R)
    OH (D)
    VA (D)
    WI (D)

    1. Nice, and I like the preciseness :-)

  4. Ok, I'm going with Obama - 288, Romney - 250. Popular vote - 51/49% in favor of Obama.

    1. Nice, and interesting :-) Sometime if you have time let me know which swing states you think are going which way.

    2. I forgot about 3rd party voters, so let me revise my popular vote percentages to Obama - 50.3% and Romney - 48.2%

      Swing states:
      Romney - FL, NC, IA, CO
      Obama - The rest of them (NH, VA, OH, PA, MI, WI, NV)

  5. Electoral College: Obama 303, Romney 235 (map at link on my name). Popular vote: Obama 50.1%, Romney 48.8%. Barack the vote!

    1. Nice, and again I like the preciseness. :-)

  6. Argh! The link didn't work. OK here are my swing state predictions:

    Obama gets OH, VA, NH, NV, CO, NM
    Romney gets FL, NC

  7. Let's go O-bahms 55%, R-money 45%, for the popular! Regarding electoral votes, based on early results, James Carville, and optimism (and additional research on Wisconsin):
    Dems get NV, NH, Mich, NC, FL, IA, OH, WI, VA
    Repubs get CO (maybe that'll be the breakaway that wins me the t-shirt)
    which would give Obama 338 electoral votes, Romney 200.