Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Live-Blog 5.1: 99 Problems...But Mitt Ain't One


3:05pm - Mandi:    Ahhh, a new thread....let's keep those guesses going.  So far, everyone is in it to win it, keeping their guesses mostly conservative.  No one thinks this will be the blow-out election of years past?  In the meantime, here is a video of Sherrod Brown, Senator from Ohio, dancing to Jay Z at the Obama's concert.  His wife is a much better dancer than he is.

4:58pm - Mandi:  Tales of machines vote flipping:

Pennsylvania voting machine
Voter touches the Obama screen, but Romney selection lights up.

5:14pm - Emily:  Well, the anxiety-level is high.  This was compounded by the traffic I was until recently fighting through.  The more I listen to news or podcasts and the more I read, the more anxious I get.  A friend posted this, which is at least funny:

But a fair amount of my anxiety is about voter suppression and intimidation, and secondarily I worry about the marriage equality provisions and how unreliable polling on that issue has traditionally proven to be.  

That said, let's focus on something else, shall we?  

Want to hear something funny that I find mortifying?  I think it's quite possible that my son voted for Romney at his school's election, all because he and his sister love the College Humor "Mitt Romney Style" video - it's here (don't worry, I hum loudly during the 2 curse words every time).

I was so shocked (we had talked about why Mommy and Daddy like President Obama, we have Obama stickers on our cars and a sign in our yard), that he changed his story, but I have my (mortified) suspicions.

6:40pm - Emily: Okay, now on ABC, watching George Stephanopoulos talking about whether the white vote will be 74% or more or less.  See Slate article about Romney's white-centric campaign.

17 minutes left to get in your contest guesses, people!  

6:59pm - Emily: Let's do this.  Virginia.

7:00pm - Emily: 

IN Romney
KY Romney
VT Obama
GA not calling - not enough to project
SC not enough to project
VA not enough to project

That's good for Obama.

If these Southern states aren't clear, that's good for Obama.  I'm surprised at GA.

Bernie Sanders won reelection in VT. (Yay, Bernie!)

7:09 - Emily:  36% of Americans early-voted, 52-45% Obama, but that's a smaller lead than he had in the early vote last time (which Rs have been crowing about)...

7:15pm - Emily:  I just noticed they also aren't calling FL - Obama up right now, Sen. Nelson killing it currently...

7:25pm - Mandi: so far so good for Obama. The republicans are saying the exit polls must be wrong. Hopefully they aren't.

7:30 - Emily:  Okay,

WV - Romney

NC -not calling - not enough info

OH - not calling - not enough info

NC good for Obama that it's close, WV no surprise.

7:38 Emily: SC Romney.  No surprise.

7:42 - Emily:  Cokie Roberts - "white men are 34% of the vote, look around, that's not the country today, you can't just appeal to white men."  Word.

George Will: "The south isn't southern in GA, FL, etc anymore."  They're sure talking like it's Obama.  (knock wood.)

I hate that they run the percentages of the vote as they come in because they can be very misleading depending on where the votes are coming from.

7:55 - Emily:  Hey, did you know the young kids are voting?  And diverse?  Unlike our analysts.  Other than Stephanopoulos and Tapper, there's not a lot of folks here who are contributing real analysis.

8pm - Emily:

IL - Obama
MA - Obama
MD - Obama
OK - Romney
ME - Obama

ME - Angus King - won (counted as D, will caucus with Ds even though he's an I)

RI - Obama
DE - Obama
DC - Obama

NH - not enough info
PA - not enough info

Those last lack-of-calls are bad for Obama.

Still no FL, OH, GA, NC - good for Obama.

8:10 - Mandi says: Too early to call, not too close to call, lines are very long.  And still ongoing.  Look at Florida.  So good so far.

8:20 - Emily:  CT for Obama.

No surprise.

Mandi says Obama's outperforming his FL totals from 2008, waiting on the source...

8:30 - Emily:  GA - Romney
AL - Romney
NJ - Obama

still no surprises.

8:33pm - Emily: 

Nelson won FL Senate - D
TN - Romney - no surprise again.
Corker won TN Senate - R
Manchin won senate in WV - D
Murphy won Senate in CT - D - expensive loss for McMahon
Carper won Senate in DE - D
Cardin won Senate in MD - D (woo-hoo, Ben!)
Whitehouse won Senate in RI - D
Menendez won Senate in NJ - D

8:46 - Emily:  Axelrod comes on ABC, spins.

Slate is calling IN Senate for Donnelly - D (AKA dude running against Mourdoch for Lugar's seat).

8:50pm - Emily:  MS - Romney - Why do they even bother?  It hasn't gone D since Carter.

8:57pm - Emily:  Yes!  Kids are asleep :-)

Now if Obama could win Ohio or MD could pass marriage equality I can open the wine.

Local coverage is helping not at all.  The Sun isn't calling anything, the local ABC station is just parroting the national coverage.  Do not waste my time, people.  I'm a political junkie on the edge!

9:00pm - Emily:  Mandi's almost home.  Local people - do not tell me vote totals of 1% reporting.  You are NOT helping.  You are a part of the problem.

Okay, Diane, tell me something good.

MI - Obama - YES
TX - Romney
NY - Obama
LA - Romney
KS - Romney
NE - Romney (so far only 4/5 electoral votes)
ND - Romney
SD - Romney
WY - Romney
AK - Romney

WI - not calling, not enough info
CO - not calling, not enough info


Ed Gillespie, awesome.

Meanwhile, Stabenow wins senate in MI, Klobuchar in MN, Gillibrand in NY, all D women, all expected.

9:13pm - Mandi:  Home sweet home!  And now, on to the stress.  None of the Romney roll call looks too surprising.  The electoral college isn't looking great for Obama right now, but I'm expecting that to change soon.

9:14 - Emily: Rs will retain control of House.  Boo.

Casey won Senate in PA.  Expected.

PA - Obama (WOOT!)


9:24 - Mandi:  PA for Obama.  Sorry guys, you can't go to bed just yet.

I'm just so happy about Warren.  Who would have called Dem pick-ups in the Senate a year ago?

9:35 - Mandi: Ohio is looking good so far, I just hope it holds.

Wisconsin Senate "too early to call" with Tammy Baldwin clearly in the lead.  Woot!!!

The blame is already beginning.  Howard Fineman reporting that the blame game in the Romney camp is well underway.  Blaming the Paul Ryan pick as a mistake.

9:38 - Emily:  I don't want to know this much about Florida, people.  Just give me a call when you get it.

WI - Obama?  Maybe.

9:46:  - Mandi:  Wisconsin for Obama.  So now both the VP nominee and the presidential nominee have already lost their "home" states.  Not good news for Republicans, and a huge waste of money.

Sherrod Brown wins Ohio!  Woot!!

9:49 - Emily:  YES!  Sherrod Brown wins senate in OH!  Great news for Ds for Senate, also for Obama because those voters are voting Obama.

9:56 - Mandi:  Obama wins New Hampshire!  So far very few of the battlegrounds are looking good for Romney.  He says he has "no regrets."  Not the statement of someone who thinks they are going to win.

9:53 - Emily:  NH - Obama!  I kind of love the way George Stephanopoulos keeps saying "Oh, Romney lost another of his home states" :-)  I need the levity, dudes.
MN - Obama!
IN - Donnelly (D) officially wins Lugar's senate seat.  Take that, Tea Party!

Baldwin in WI Senate?  Maybe.

10:06 - Mandi:  McCaskill wanted Akin to run, and by golly she got him!  And now she has retained a seat that absolutely everyone expected her to lose.  Sometimes it isn't a candidate winning, but the other candidate losing.  Such is the case here for sure.

10:06 - Emily: UT - Romney
MT - Romney
NV - no call yet

McCaskill, bitches!  Akin, down.  Mourdock, down.  DO NOT MESS WITH WOMEN.

A lot of pundit talk like Romney has lost, some gossip from Bushies saying they're impressed with Obama's ground game.

10:14 - Mandi:

I've relaxed again.  So much so that I've turned to Fox News.  It looks like a funeral in there.  I laugh at their pain.  Analysts are starting to talk like Obama re-election is a done deal. 

Carville on CNN says he believes that Obama will carry Florida soon.  All the other pundits agreed.

Democrats officially retain control of the Senate.

10:19 - Emily: Really good night for D women Senators.

WI officially Obama on ABC, and it's sounding more and more positive.

10:36 - Mandi:

CNN is predicting an early night.  Not good for the Romney folks.  Has predicted more of the same gridlock over the next four years.  I hope not. 

Romney has yet to put a single battleground state firmly in his column.

10:44 - Emily:  People can stop talking about how white or unwhite the country is any time now.  So you're take-away isn't that this was about the president's record, the war on women, increased confidence in the economy, how sucky a candidate Romney is, no, it's all about race?

MN - Obama!

10:55 - Mandi:

...And Arizona to Romney.  Everyone is tense, waiting for the polls to close on the west coast.  I think we will probably have a winner sometime during the 11 o'clock hour.

George Allen, Republican candidate for Senate is conceding.  Ah Virginia, I knew you would come through for me!

10:56pm - Emily:  Nobody's called VA senate, but we're pretty sure Allen just conceded.  My brother just told me NBC called it for Kaine (D).

Ezra Kline called NC for Romney.

Al Gore said Obama will win FL.  Why does he talk before anything is sure??

NYT is updating their "paths to the WH" - looking good for O.

CO - Obama!!!!!!!!
OR - Obama
CA - Obama
HI - Obama
WA - Obama


11:04 - Mandi:

Obama is crushing this.

But see, Romney wins NC and Missouri. Sigh.  NC first true battleground state in Romney's column.

CNN finally projects the Senate for Democrats, which we called about an hour ago.

11:10 - Emily:
IOWA - Obama!!!!

Nice.  If Obama wins NV at this point I think he's won.

OHIO, bitches!!!!!  Obama takes OHIO.

11:18 - Mandi:

The networks have called it for Pres. Obama.  CONGRATULATIONS!!!!  Obama wins!

Frazier goes down!!!

11:21 - Emily:  And we're happy ladies.  The women have spoken.  Now let's find out about the marriage equality.


  1. Electoral 303 (D)
    NH, IA, CO, NV, OH, VA, PA, MI, WI, NM (D)
    FL, MO, NC (R)

    Popular 50.25% (D)

    AZ, ND, NV (R)
    CT, IN, MA, MO, MT, NM, OH, VA, WI (D)

    1. Nice, way to get it in under the wire :-)

  2. I took out the videos (there are still links to them) because people were having trouble with the increase in loading time...

  3. In Europe, they should report this in metric.

    1. Hey, at least you get European beer.

  4. AAAAAAAAHHHHH. Election stress + small kids = more stress.

  5. very stressful

  6. 3,403,501


    78% in Florida. Amazing. It's just the law of large numbers...

    1. We don't have to win FL, but it would be nice. It's great that it's this close.

  7. Despite not being nervous before, I'm a complete mess right now. Which is strange, because Obama looks to be in a really good position right now. I probably need a drink.

  8. Just wanted to let you ladies know I think you rock. Speaking of rocks, I've decided to go stick my head under one. Media blackout in this house (unless it is on Tivo and has nothing to do with the election). If there is a decision by the time I get up, I'll get it from YBGP, not network news. Blog on, I'm out.

  9. Apparently NBC has called it for Obama